Whether crime or the perception of it has any direct and significant influence on travelers’ mode choice is a topic for which the evidence remains inconclusive. Studies have revealed various, and in some cases counterintuitive, roles that safety concerns can play in individuals’ travel behavior. In addition, characteristics of the physical environment such as land use and walkability are also influential factors in travelers’ decisions.
In this project, we explore these questions through the study of individual travel behavior by using discrete choice models applied to the reported home-based work trips in the Chicago household travel survey. Mode choice was modeled as functions of variables such as socio-demographics, neighborhood crime density (as a safety measure), and walk score (as a measure of walkability). Different crime types were examined including battery, theft, and robbery. Results suggest that both walk score and the crime density at the destination can be considered meaningful predictors of individuals’ mode usage. The crime density at origin, however, does not show a significant and meaningful effect.
Spatial Distribution of Crime and Crime Type
We found that the spatial distribution of crime depends on the crime type. While theft is more concentrated in higher income areas of north (left map), robbery and battery have higher concentration in low income areas of south and west (middle and right maps). Downtown Chicago appears as a crime hot spot regardless of the crime type.
In this project, we explore these questions through the study of individual travel behavior by using discrete choice models applied to the reported home-based work trips in the Chicago household travel survey. Mode choice was modeled as functions of variables such as socio-demographics, neighborhood crime density (as a safety measure), and walk score (as a measure of walkability). Different crime types were examined including battery, theft, and robbery. Results suggest that both walk score and the crime density at the destination can be considered meaningful predictors of individuals’ mode usage. The crime density at origin, however, does not show a significant and meaningful effect.
Spatial Distribution of Crime and Crime Type
We found that the spatial distribution of crime depends on the crime type. While theft is more concentrated in higher income areas of north (left map), robbery and battery have higher concentration in low income areas of south and west (middle and right maps). Downtown Chicago appears as a crime hot spot regardless of the crime type.
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Theft
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Robbery
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Battery
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Crime and Distance to Train Stations
All three analyzed crime types have decreasing densities as the distance from the train stations increases. The observed trend does not necessarily mean that the train stations absorb crime only because of their physical environment. Crime occurrence requires existence of both the criminal and the target. The fact that large numbers of commuters can be found in the vicinity of train stations could be a factor in having higher crime rates around the stations compared with the regions further away from the stations.
All three analyzed crime types have decreasing densities as the distance from the train stations increases. The observed trend does not necessarily mean that the train stations absorb crime only because of their physical environment. Crime occurrence requires existence of both the criminal and the target. The fact that large numbers of commuters can be found in the vicinity of train stations could be a factor in having higher crime rates around the stations compared with the regions further away from the stations.
To learn more about the findings of the study, download the following published paper.
Reference:
Halat, H., Saberi, M., Frei, C., Frei, A., Mahmassani, H. (2015) Impact of Crime Statistics on Travel Mode Choice: Case Study of the City of Chicago. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2537, 81-87. [pdf]
Halat, H., Saberi, M., Frei, C., Frei, A., Mahmassani, H. (2015) Impact of Crime Statistics on Travel Mode Choice: Case Study of the City of Chicago. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2537, 81-87. [pdf]